UK Outlook: Exceeding Expectations but… Stagnating? 

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There is considerable uncertainty about the unemployment data 

As I explained earlier this year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has ceased to publish unemployment data based on the U.K. Labour Force Survey. The responses to the survey have fallen so much that the ONS cannot accurately calculate the unemployment rate. 

Instead, the ONS is currently releasing an “experimental unemployment rate” based on claimant counts, which currently stands at 4.2%. 

However, in a stealth move, the ONS also released some preliminary data from their Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) a few weeks ago. The TLFS was supposed to be

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