Conflicting Macro Data Causes Severe Headaches for the BoE

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GDP data showed an improving economy…  

Last week it looked like the U.K. economy had shaken off the shallow recession that it experienced last year. The ONS monthly GDP figures showed that the first two months saw the economy return to growth, albeit at a slow pace. These preliminary numbers indicate that the U.K. economy expanded at a rate of 0.3% and 0.1% in January and February, respectively. 

Moreover, for the first time since mid-2022, the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is slightly exceeding 50 again, the threshold that separates economic contraction and expansion. With the services PMI remaining comfortably

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