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On June 30th, 2022, Kyla Scanlon coined the term “vibecession”, suggesting that despite the economy performing better than expected, there were persistent negative “vibes” about the future of the economy. Could this scenario potentially cause a recession? If consumers tightened their belts and stopped spending as much, then yes!  

The “Vibecession”

As we review the previous year, did this gloomy prediction come to fruition? No. Consumers are still spending quite strongly across many different categories. The chart below illustrates this nicely: across all major groups spending is at or above its pre-pandemic level. Nominal spending (not adjusted for inflation)

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