This is a preview. View original post on this site
Predicting recessions is futile
If forecasters have learned anything from the last two years, it should be that predicting recessions is a fool’s game. More specifically, from a macroeconomic standpoint, forecasting future economic downturns doesn’t even make sense!
Economists are struggling to estimate GDP in real-time (figures are usually released about a month after the quarter has already ended). Not only that, but GDP figures are often subject to large revisions.
Furthermore, it is the aim of central banks to stabilize the demand side of the economy. If recessions were easy to predict, policy makers would simply be able
