Checking in on the consumer 

2025’s seasonal hiring rush will look different from recent years. Over the past five years, steady income gains have fueled strong demand for retail, warehousing, and transportation workers. Rising wages kept consumer spending growing at about a 2.5% annual pace from 2022. That strength is now starting to fade. 

As we move into the final quarter of 2025, December’s retail spending may come in softer than in recent years. Mastercard’s annual holiday spending report suggests inflation from tariffs will drive a larger share of sales growth this season, rather than stronger consumer