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Key Points:
Job openings fell in July to 7.7 million, with the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers falling below its 2019 average. Hiring and quitting ticked up in July, but those increases are likely bounce-backs from low readings in June. Both series are still trending downward. Fortunately, layoffs remain low. But unemployment is likely to keep drifting higher if hiring remains depressed.
The labor market is no longer cooling down to its pre-pandemic temperature… it’s dropped below it. At this point, nobody — and certainly not policymakers at the Federal Reserve — should want the labor