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Today’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady is a clear vote of confidence in a labor market that while gradually cooling, has remained remarkably resilient. Keeping rates unchanged also signals a “wait and see” approach from a data-dependent Federal Reserve anxious to see any potential effects — positive or negative — of proposed policy shifts around immigration, trade, and geopolitics that may yet impact the US labor market. Limiting immigration and enacting broad tariffs on a range of nations and goods, as proposed, have historically had an inflationary effect. Any sustained uptick in inflation may spur the Fed