MILWAUKEE — Global hiring momentum is holding steady compared to last year, but employers are flashing signs of caution heading into the third quarter of 2026. According to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of more than 40,500 employers across 42 countries, economic uncertainty—not the disruptive rise of Artificial Intelligence—has emerged as the primary driver of hiring hesitation.

The global Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q3 2026 stands at 26%. While that represents a modest two-point increase year-over-year, it marks a five-point drop from the previous quarter. The cooling sentiment is widespread, with hiring outlooks weakening in 33 of the 42 surveyed countries compared to Q2.

“What the data this quarter reveals is a labor market navigating uncertainty while pursuing selective opportunity,” ManpowerGroup Chair and CEO Jonas Prising said in a statement. “Economic uncertainty, more than AI itself, is emerging as the primary driver of caution, particularly across Europe, Asia, and large enterprises.”

Prising noted that despite the hesitation, companies are still hiring selectively for technical skills needed to fuel transformation, accelerate productivity, and protect long-term growth. Overall, 42% of surveyed organizations plan to add staff in Q3, 40% intend to keep headcounts steady, and 16% anticipate staff reductions.

Mid-Size Companies Lead the Charge

While large enterprises pull back, mid-size organizations (250–999 employees) are acting as the global job market’s primary engine. This segment reported the strongest hiring intentions at 32%, marking a significant six-point gain year-over-year and comfortably outperforming both small businesses and corporate giants.

From an industry perspective, tech and building sectors remain resilient:

• Information (Tech): Leads all sectors with a 32% NEO.
• Construction & Real Estate: Follows closely at 31%.
• Finance & Insurance: Posts a strong 29% hiring outlook.
• Utilities & Natural Resources: Showed the biggest annual jump, climbing eight points.
• Hospitality: Suffered the sharpest decline, dropping to a 14% NEO—its lowest reading since Q3 2021.

A Widening Geographic Divide

The survey highlights a stark divergence between the Western hemisphere and the rest of the world, largely driven by geopolitical instability and energy cost pressures in Europe and Asia.

The Americas region stands alone as the only territory to strengthen on an annual basis, dipping just three points from last quarter but surging seven points year-over-year. Global hiring confidence is heavily concentrated here, led by Puerto Rico (48%), the United States (45%), and Brazil (37%).

Conversely, Asia Pacific fell 11 points quarter-over-quarter to a 28% NEO, though India remains a major global outlier, tying Puerto Rico for the highest hiring confidence in the world at 48%.

Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) reported the weakest regional outlook at 16%, down seven points from last quarter. While the United Kingdom remains a regional bright spot at 37%, nations like Slovakia (-6%) and Romania (-12%) registered the weakest outlooks globally, signaling expected staff contractions.

Humans Secure the Hiring Reins Over AI

As generative AI tools saturate the corporate landscape, the survey indicates that human judgment is holding its ground in the recruitment process. Employers overwhelmingly noted that they are not ready to fully automate hiring.

A traditional human reviewing resumes remains the most valued recruitment resource (57%), outranking automated status updates (48%), AI-assisted job description writing (46%), and AI-driven resume screening or sourcing (44%).

Furthermore, as AI handles more routine tasks, the workplace skills commanding the highest premium are distinctly human. Employers ranked communication, collaboration, and teamwork as their most valued soft asset (72%), followed closely by critical thinking and problem-solving (68%), professionalism (68%), and adaptability (68%).

“The organizations moving forward most confidently,” Prising said, “are those aligning their people strategy with their technology strategy.”