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Key points:
The unemployment rate has risen 0.55 percentage points on a three-month average basis since its low of 3.5% in January 2023, raising recession fears. Much of the increase in unemployment has been driven by workers joining or re-joining the labor force, a sign that workers remain confident in their ability to eventually find work. Persistent wage growth is likely to draw more workers back to the market and will continue to do so if it stays strong, a reason for cautious optimism that outright labor market deterioration may not be immediately at hand.
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