Wage Growth Slowing says Indeed

Indeed, just released new data on wages advertised on Indeed job postings in the US from the Indeed Wage Tracker indicating a substantial slowdown in posted wage growth from its peak of 9% year-over-year growth in March 2022 to 6.5% year-over-year growth in November 2022.

Despite the decline, posted wage growth remains elevated from pre-pandemic rates of 3.1% annual growth in November 2019. The Indeed Wage Tracker measures the real time temperature of the market for employers looking to hire new workers1, and may be a leading indicator of broader measures of wage growth.

“New data from the Indeed Wage Tracker indicates that wage growth is starting to slow down after a period of rapid acceleration,” said Nick Bunker, Director of Economic Research for North America at Indeed. “The vast majority of job sectors had slower increases in posted wages in November than they did six months prior. On its current trajectory, the Indeed Wage Tracker would return to its pre-pandemic pace of 3% to 4% year-over-year growth by the second half of 2023. Our measure of wage growth has already peaked, but we are in the early innings of this wage slowdown.”

Nick Bunker

The decline in posted wages reflected in the Indeed Wage Tracker are also seen across the broader labor market; only 18% of occupational categories saw their posted wage growth hold steady or increase in the six months from May 2022 to November 2022. In stark contrast, 93% of occupational categories observed steady or increasing gains in the same six month time period the year prior (May 2021 to November 2021).

Data from the Indeed Wage Tracker suggests that wage growth for job switchers will continue to decline, but the amount of time it takes for a slowdown in posted wage growth to flow through to job switcher wage growth is about three months. Posted wage growth may return to its pre-pandemic pace late next year on its current trajectory. However, overall wage growth, which trails gains for new hires, may not normalize until well into 2024.

Updates to the Indeed Wage Tracker will be released monthly here.

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