The U.S. Labor Market Is Weaker Than Consensus & Recession Risk Is Higher

This post was originally published on this site.

It feels like an eternity since we’ve had a regularly scheduled ‘Jobs Week’ (remember Labor Day?) and while this week doesn’t yet qualify as one in any event, the lights are finally starting to come fully back on from the data black-out we’ve been operating under for some time. As we wrote in early November and early December, we are forecasting that the U.S. economy lost 5,000 jobs in October and gained 45,000 jobs in November.

But more importantly, and with the assumption that the numbers coming out later this morning will come in approximately as we expect, not only

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