OKLAHOMA CITY — A striking mismatch is defining the American labor market heading into the final stretch of 2026. While the vast majority of U.S. businesses are highly optimistic and actively looking to expand their staff, nearly half are trapped in a holding pattern, unable to fill their existing job openings.
According to a new Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey released Wednesday, 84% of U.S. hiring managers report feeling positive about their company’s recruitment outlook for the remainder of the year. However, translating that optimism into actual hires is proving increasingly difficult.
The data reveals that 44% of hiring managers currently have open positions they simply cannot fill. This marks a sharp increase from the 36% reported in late 2025 and represents the highest level of talent shortages seen since the spring of 2023.
Driven by Workloads, Not Just Optimism
For most companies, the desire to bring on new staff is a matter of operational survival rather than speculative growth. Among the 60% of employers who plan to increase their employee headcount before the end of the year, the primary drivers are purely functional:
- 53% report handling significantly increased volumes of work.
- 49% are trying to staff newly created positions.
- 42% are scrambling to replace workers lost to employee turnover.
“The mismatch between open jobs and available talent is not something businesses can afford to ignore,” said Bob Funk Jr., CEO, president, and chairman of Express Employment International. “The right worker may not always arrive ready-made, but with the right training and support, they can become the right fit.”
AI and Economic Anxiety Loom Large
The struggle to hire comes at a time when traditional recruitment methods are colliding with rapid technological shifts and economic uncertainty. A staggering 90% of hiring managers state they expect to face significant hurdles over the next six months.
The top anticipated challenge, cited by 49% of respondents, is navigating the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into recruitment and hiring processes. Meanwhile, 42% cite the standard struggle of finding qualified candidates, and 32% say that shifting government policies and lingering recession fears are making it difficult to properly plan their long-term labor needs.
The Cost-Cutting Counter-Trend
While the majority of the market is focused on growth, a quiet tier of the economy is pulling back. Nearly a third of companies (32%) plan to freeze hiring and maintain their current staffing levels, while 7% intend to actively downsize.
For the small percentage cutting back, the motivators are starkly different from those looking to grow. A massive 72% of downsizing companies cite an urgent need to reduce costs, while 44% point to the increased efficiency and implementation of automation and AI as the reason they require fewer human workers.
Ultimately, the 2026 job market presents a complex landscape for job seekers and employers alike. Opportunities are widespread, but the path from posting a job listing to successfully onboarding a qualified employee remains a significant bottleneck for the American economy.
Methodology: The Job Insights survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals between May 13 and June 1, 2026, polling 1,006 U.S. hiring decision-makers.