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It’s difficult enough to guesstimate the potential impact Trump’s policies will have on immigration, which is what we attempted to do in our previous piece.
Modeling the impact on the economy and the labor market is even harder. Nevertheless, we have tried our best. Using a simple economic growth model, we estimate the impact on GDP and wages. In a subsequent step, we outline the inflationary response and how the Fed might potentially react to it. This piece will summarize the results of this modeling exercise.
The decline in the non-college-educated workforce and what that means for wage growth
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