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The U.S. labor market is clearly cooling and has been for some time. Does this cooling reflect a successful effort to bring down inflation (aka, a “soft landing”) or does it mean we’re on the verge of more dramatic weakening, perhaps a looming recession? It’s not so clear!
The August jobs report was a tweener: neither so weak to indicate a collapse in hiring and a rise in layoffs is on the horizon, nor steady enough to give comfort that a “soft landing” has been safely accomplished. The Fed has a difficult decision to make later this month – whether