The unemployment rate for recent college graduates (ages 22–27) has climbed to its highest point in decades, now rivaling that of workers with only a high school diploma. This marks the narrowest gap in 30 years between degree holders and their less-educated peers, eroding one of the long-standing advantages of a college education.
That’s the sobering finding from No Country for Young Grads, a new report by the Burning Glass Institute, a non-profit data laboratory studying the future of work and learning, which analyzed employment data and hiring trends from 2018 to 2024. MyPerfectResume®, a leading resume-building service, is amplifying key insights from BGI’s report to help job seekers and employers understand the implications.
Experts at BGI analyzed employment data and job postings across dozens of white-collar industries from 2018 to 2024, revealing a systemic shift: employers are increasingly skipping over new college grads (particularly in fields most affected by AI) and demanding 3+ years of experience, even for junior roles.
The Graduate Glut Is Here
The analysis also highlights an intensifying structural imbalance: the supply of college-educated workers is surging while the number of entry-level, degree-relevant roles is shrinking. For the Class of 2023, 52% were underemployed one year after graduation, working in jobs that didn’t require a degree. This trend cuts across majors, including STEM. Even in engineering, over a quarter of graduates ended up underemployed.
Key Findings: A Systemic Shift in Early-Career Hiring
The degree advantage is eroding:
- The unemployment rate for 22–27-year-olds with bachelor’s degrees has risen sharply, narrowing the gap with peers with only a high school education to its smallest margin in 30 years.
- The sharpest increases in the unemployment rate are concentrated in occupations like tech, business operations, and finance that have offered ready career entry points for the previous generation of college graduates.
Young grads are facing a higher layoff risk:
- Layoffs among recent college graduates have nearly doubled since before the pandemic
- This is especially true in AI-exposed sectors like tech and finance, where stability is outpacing that seen among older degree holders.
Entry-level job postings are disappearing in AI-exposed sectors:
In fields like software, data science, and consulting, entry-level roles requiring ≤3 years of experience have dropped dramatically:
- Software development: 43% (2018) → 28% (2024)
- Data analysis: 35% → 22%
- Consulting: 41% → 26%
Companies are still hiring, but not for juniors:
- Total job postings in these fields remained flat or even grew. Senior-level postings held steady, suggesting a shift in preference rather than a hiring freeze.
Why It’s Happening: AI Is Automating the Learning Curve
Entry-level jobs have long served as training grounds, places where junior workers can build experience through foundational tasks such as research, drafting, and analysis. But AI tools like ChatGPT are now handling those tasks. As a result, the traditional “learn by doing” career model is breaking down.
“We’re watching the bottom rung of the ladder collapse,” said Jasmine Escalera, career expert at MyPerfectResume. “Companies want plug-and-play talent, and that leaves new grads without the room to grow.”
Looking ahead, the problem may worsen. The number of working-age Americans is projected to remain flat due to demographic and immigration trends, but the number of college-educated adults will continue to rise. By 2034, between 7 and 11 million more college-educated Americans will enter the labor force, heightening competition for a shrinking pool of suitable jobs.