With 80% of U.S. hiring managers bracing for a recession, nearly half expecting it within the next year, businesses aren’t waiting to feel the impact. They’re already shifting gears, scaling back hiring, rewriting long-term plans and making tough choices between protecting today and investing in tomorrow.
This is according to a recent Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey.
The data paints a picture of cautious optimism clouded by economic anxiety:
- 94% say a recession would impact their organization, and 60% anticipate a major or moderate effect.
- 36% admit their company may not survive a recession this year, rising to 57% among blue-collar employers.
Despite these concerns, many employers still see opportunities:
- 78% believe their company will be in a better economic position by year’s end.
- 58% view a potential recession as more of a growth opportunity than a threat.
Still, the looming threat is already influencing hiring decisions. More than a third of companies (35%) say they would reduce hiring if a recession occurs, up from 30% in the spring of 2022, and 17% would freeze hiring altogether. In anticipation, 83% of employers have taken proactive steps to prepare, including:
- Cutting unnecessary expenses (45%)
- Streamlining processes (29%)
- Cross-training employees (26%)
- Not filling vacated roles (23%)
- Conducting layoffs (19%)
These actions align with projections from the Congressional Budget Office, which estimates that a moderate recession could raise unemployment from 4.2% to as high as 7.5%, potentially resulting in up to 5 million job losses.
However, the cost of preparation is not just financial; it’s strategic. Many companies are already feeling the strain:
- 61% say recession planning has taken time away from efforts to improve their organization’s long-term future.
- 57% report having to overhaul strategic plans since the beginning of the year. This includes 65% of blue-collar and 54% of white-collar employers.
When asked what would help them navigate a downturn, hiring managers pointed to:
- Training and upskilling programs (60%)
- Flexible staffing solutions (39%)
- Clearer communication from leadership (33%)
The most resilient companies don’t just react to economic shifts; they use them as catalysts to become more efficient,” said Bob Funk Jr., CEO, President and Chairman of Express Employment International. “By streamlining operations and investing in versatile talent, businesses can position themselves for long-term success in any environment.”