What surprised us: Real, inflation-adjusted wages and salaries for private-sector workers fell for the first time since 2022, dropping 0.4% year-over-year. Private-sector wage growth fell to 3.1% year-over-year in Q2 2026, down from 3.5% a year earlier. Inflation rebounded in the second quarter, driven in part by higher energy prices associated with the conflict in Iran. The combination of softening