Why Economists Believe A Recession is Likely in 2023

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A majority of economists forecast a recession for the U.S. in 2023 – 58 percent, according to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released earlier this week on March 27. The chart below, from NABE’s release, shows that only 5% of surveyed economists think the U.S. is currently in a recession – and that share is down from 19% when last surveyed in August 2022. The most likely start of a recession is Q3 of this year, when 24% of NABE panelists expect a recession to begin.

The optimists, like myself, are

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