Why Do Some Economists Believe A Recession Can Be Avoided?

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Last week I detailed why most economists – 58% according to one survey – think the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2023. At the moment, I’m in the minority of economists (22%) who think a recession won’t begin until the second half of 2024 or later. Today, I’ll answer the question posed in the first part of this series: Why do some economists – a minority but not a tiny sliver of cranks – believe in the fabled “soft landing” scenario of inflation coming down and the economy staying (relatively) strong?

A Review of the Indicators

First, what do we

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