The United Kingdom Is Missing Workers

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GDP shortfalls for years to come? 

We recently wrote several blog posts about the U.K.’s short-run economic outlook. The Bank of England (BoE) was still extremely pessimistic at the end of last year, forecasting a deep and prolonged recession. This never made too much sense to us and, indeed, their near-term outlook recently improved.  

Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and the BoE are now forecasting the U.K.’s unemployment rate to peak at 5% even as the country is falling into a recession this year. While the expectations are now set for a shallow downturn, households continue to suffer

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