Retail hiring will likely be subdued this holiday season due to several factors. First, retail inventories have been steadily growing. Nominal inventories are especially elevated and rising rapidly – retailers are still reeling from a rapid post-pandemic shift in consumer demand.
The retail inventories-to-sales ratio – a measure of how long inventory will last at the current sales pace – is, historically speaking, fairly low, at just 1.23 in July (normally, retailers aim for around 1.5). However, it has been climbing steadily, indicating that retailers are at risk of an overwhelming bloat if they miscalculate consumer