Reports of a US Recession Were Greatly Exaggerated 

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Is “boomy” a word? Or is booming more accurate? Whichever adjective you choose is an accurate description of the U.S. economy in Q3. The initial estimate for inflation-adjusted GDP growth came out as 4.9%! Except for the immediate post-COVID recovery period, this would be the highest quarterly growth rate since 2014. Kudos to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for projecting 5.4% growth – far higher than consensus forecasters, but more accurate in the end. 

While overall real GDP growth was very strong, what we call “underlying” GDP growth – elegantly defined as “real final sales to

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