Layered Risks to a Likely Soft Landing  

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Is the fabled “soft landing” really happening? So far, yes, it seems that it is. While not a sure thing, it looks promising. Let’s review what a soft landing means, tour the latest Fed forecasts for the economy, and assess four layers of risks to the outlook. 

What is a “soft landing”?  

A soft landing means disinflation without a recession. It has happened before, in 1995, but it’s not easy to pull off. When the Fed embarks on a sustained series of interest rate hikes to combat high inflation, more often than not a recession follows. However, in

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