June 2024 Jobs Day Report: Moderate, but the Forecast Is Getting Chillier

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Key points:

The unemployment rate continues to drift upward, hitting 4.1% in June. Payroll growth remains robust but continues to trend downward as the three-month average declined to 177,00 jobs, a pace similar to 2019’s average growth. The US labor market is currently in a good spot, but the future won’t be as pleasant if current trends continue.

For the past few years, the moderation of the US labor market was a mostly welcome trend as the demand for and supply of labor came back into balance. But now that the labor market has readjusted, any further cooling

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