The U.S. economy added a solid 390,000 net new jobs in May 2022. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, nearly a 50-year low. Broad-based job gains (aside from retail), moderating wage growth, and labor force participation recovering – all these are signs the jobs recovery is in the home stretch, meaning that in the next few months employment will crest above pre-pandemic levels.
COVID “job deficit” continues to shrink
The three-month moving average of employment gains is around 400,000 – that is far from a recession. These gains occurred despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates amid elevated