Job Growth is Treading Water 

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The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, which on its face isn’t bad. However, the average monthly job gains over the past year have slowed to about 144,000, which is the lowest level since late 2011 (excluding the sharp pandemic-era drop). So, the labor market is treading water. Unemployment can remain roughly stable, and the current labor market health can be sustained if job growth continues at this current pace, but any further slippage will be a warning sign.  

On a nerdier note, the net hiring rate has shifted down to 1.2%, well below pre-pandemic trends.

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