Are We Witnessing “Immaculate Disinflation”?

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Inflation is turning a corner. Growth is slowing but still positive. The labor market is resiliently strong. Simply put, it seems that the U.S. economy is undergoing an “immaculate disinflation” – whereby price growth slows to normal but without collateral damage to the labor market. But it’s too soon to rule out a hard landing – aka, recession.

Soft-landing optimists were cheered on by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December 2022, which showed monthly deflation (a decline in the overall index). The month-over-month decline was primarily because of falling energy prices. Price growth over the previous year

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