A “Job-Full” Recession?

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The United States is probably not in a recession yet. Yes, GDP has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters, the housing market is a mess, and inflation is eating away at real wages. Despite all that, the economy is getting on remarkably well: the labor market is strong and consumer spending remains steady.

Yet, the threat of an upcoming recession continues to loom large. The Federal Reserve projects slower growth and rising unemployment in the coming years. The projected unemployment rate increase has the potential to trigger the Sahm rule in 2023, a surprisingly accurate recession indicator. 


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