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The U.S. jobs market started off the new year with a bang! In January, the labor market once again looked very strong, toppling market expectations. Unemployment remains at the low level of 3.7%, while measures of labor force supply flattened.
This is a surprisingly hot start to the year but January’s data is often marred by statistical quirks. For example, in January 2023 the initial estimate for nonfarm payrolls was a whopping 517,000, which eventually was revised down to 482,000. However, this will not bolster confidence in the Federal Reserve to soon start rate cuts. This labor market might still