Sometimes things are easier than they seem. Predicting job performance is one of those things. The 2X2 matrix shown below is proof. In just 50 words, it describes exactly what you need to do to make better hiring decisions and what you need to do to avoid the bad ones.
The understanding starts by looking at how people who are very competent and highly motivated to do the work actually get hired. This is the Top-Tier group 1 in the upper left grid of the matrix.
Tier 1: Great hires.
These are people